A recent article by journalist Jason Schreier on Obsidian, the studio responsible for The Outer Worlds and Grounded series, and Avowed, to name just a couple of its very recent credits, has been weaving its way through the news and social outlets. It’s an interesting read. While it’s focus is on the studio’s re-invention efforts, it also plainly lays out the fact that neither of its recent, sizeable, single-player RPGs, Avowed and The Outer Worlds 2, met expectations, each after being in development for more than a half-decade. Having played both games, I can’t say I’m surprised. Oh, I enjoyed both games for what they were in the moment, and I’m the target audience for them – “sizeable, single-player RPGs” is pretty much my wheelhouse – but neither was great nor felt like they belonged in 2025. 2019, maybe? Sure.

I’m not going to sit here and pretend that game development is easy, or that the past few years haven’t taken a strong toll on the industry (let alone all of us in general), but as Hatm0nster wrote about last month, the writing’s on the wall for AAA games development. Big games take time, sure, but these big studios seem to be shooting themselves in their feet with poor decision-making, cutting corners, and too much iteration, not enough evolution. There’s no denying that this is a tricky road to navigate. Go too far afield, and we end up with the likes of Mass Effect: Andromeda and Dragon Age: The Veilguard. (Sorry to dump on BioWare, but fact is, ME4’s got some big shoes to fill.) Stick too close to antiquated notions of past glories, and we end up with The Outer Worlds 2. Under-deliver on over-promises, and we end up with Concord and Redfall (low-hanging fruit, indeed, but fair examples nonetheless). The “quality down, cost up” factor that plagues AAA games today doesn’t help matters either.

I’m in the camp that believes GTA VI will be a bellwether for where the AAA games industry is heading. We may see a few smaller indicators along the way this year in games such as Crimson Desert, 007 First Light, Pragmata, Fable, to name a few, but GTA VI is the big one. There’s no doubt anyone’s mind that the game will sell, but will it sell enough? Further, could it sell enough to save an entire sector of the industry? That’s a tall order. Maybe it just needs to be successful enough to make the people in charge of AAA development…do better?

Alas, even I realize that sounds too naïve and idealistic. Guess I’ll just get back to Clair Obscure: Expedition 33 and keep my mouth shut and my eyes open.

Lede image captured by author during Xbox Series S gameplay of The Outer Worlds 2 (© Obsidian Entertainment).