With everything that’s happening in the games business, I can’t shake the feeling that something big is coming. Some sort of massive change, or perhaps “correction” is better, is going to hit the market and transform it into something very different from what it is now. Many expect a collapse of the high-end AAA sector of the business. Some are even desperately hoping for it. I get the sentiment, I do, but I don’t think that’s what’s going to happen. Rather, I think we’re going to see the industry shrink and then stratify along lines of luxury and affordability.
It’s becoming increasingly clear that platform holders and other tech giants heavily invested in AI are trying to craft a future in which physical machines will be limited mostly to corporate enterprise, with just about everyone else renting compute via subscription services and cloud delivery.
Users will likely also be forced into highly expensive game subscription services like Game Pass as well, since literally everything will be hosted on corporate servers in data centers. It will have to be expensive too, as Xbox has constantly complained that Game Pass, expensive as it already is, has never been profitable.
Companies who offer these services will want to charge a premium for them, and they’ll also want a relatively small user base so as to keep costs down. Basically, there’s likely not going to be room for the average, non-wealthy, non-whale gamer once this stuff is built out. Heck, you could argue that we’re already getting pushed out due to both hardware and AAA games becoming more and more prohibitively expensive. AAA gaming is becoming a hobby accessible only to the rich, and it really looks like that’s by design.
So, what are all of us average joes gonna do? I think we’re going to wind up going in a combination of directions. One group is going to take a renewed interest in current and past hardware. Old stuff has traditionally been cheaper than new, with costs going down the further back you go. However, with increased demand comes increased prices, so retro hardware is only going to be a viable path for those who get in early.
Emulation boxes are another possible avenue, since they likely could be built for cheap using lower-spec or even scavenged parts. Whether or not those wishing to go the emulation route will end up having to set sail in order to so remains to be seen, but those with the know-how should be able to amass very substantial and satisfactory digital collections and keep them offline on their own hardware.
The last possible route I see also involves going back a few years in terms of PC power and building (or scavenging together) lower-power PCs meant to only play indie games (possibly AA games too) purchased through Steam or GOG.
With AAA already getting out of reach, indie games on budget machines will likely be the only option left for those who still want to play something new from time to time. Indie games, by their very nature, have to be cheap, so at least we should still have them available for a while yet. The main issue is just going to be getting the hardware.
Keep in mind that this is all speculation on my part, and I could wind up being way off. I hope I am because it’s a pretty bleak picture. Seriously though, everything that’s happening makes it look very much like we’re no longer valuable customers to these companies.
Heck, it even sometimes feels like they resent having to produce anything for us at all. If they decide that chasing our dollars is no longer worth it, then they absolutely will abandon us the first chance they get. So plan ahead, get your collection or get your devices ready now, because you might not have the chance to do so later once all this stuff goes down.
What’s your take on the current situation? What are you going to if gaming gets too expensive?
Image by flickr user: Leon Terra
I think past consoles will definitely get more popular – the likes of the PS4 are still plenty powerful enough to play games in a great resolution, and there is such a library of games around. I am curious if the bubble will ever burst for modern consoles – they always seem to sell out despite any complaints. I’ll be curious if the PlayStation 6 is without a disc drive (which seems like it must do), whether sales are hurt in any meaningful way.
For me, I just hope Nintendo hold on to physical games. I know they have some questionable aspects to them as a company, but they do still feel like a company that prides itself on their history of improving the gaming world. It’d really hurt if they stopped making physical games.
PS6 won’t suffer due to lack of a disc drive, but it *suffer* from its pricing. PS5 is already prohibitively expensive, as are its games, and there’s no way PS6 won’t be even more expensive.
I’m thinking that only rich casuals are going to stick around. Families will bow out and “hardcore” gamers will either go PC or go retro. There will be no advantage to staying on PlayStation, especially without the existence of physical to encourage reasonable pricing and regular sales. Also that whole “we can delete your account and all your purchases with it if you’re inactive for too long” clause in the EULA is really concerning. Has me wishing I’d jumped ship years ago.
Yeah, it’s all certainly turned me off the idea of ever getting a PS5 now. I do wonder if they will reach the point where they actually do turn off a large amount of people and feel the effect of it in sales. I suppose they are expecting to gain more than they lose… For me, it’s disappointing for them to seemingly not care about the health of the industry as a whole.
I just hope other companies can pick up this gap and get rewarded by gamers for doing so.