I’ve already touched on this topic several times over the past year or so, but my mind just keeps coming back to it. The ballooning prices, the insane budgets, the ever-more predatory monetization schemes, lazy design, bad writing and altogether way too lengthy development cycles…it all just has me thinking that there’s no way that this can go on. Even more, I don’t think it should.

There are a number of things happening that have me thinking this way, but, oddly, it’s the situation surrounding Grand Theft Auto VI that’s got me writing today. Now, I may not be a fan of Rockstar or Grand Theft Auto, but even I can recognize that this is going to be a generational game. The hype for it has been beyond insane for several years now, and it’s still growing even now. I fully expect it to shatter records on release and perhaps even make back the full 2 billion-plus dollars that Rockstar invested into its development. Well, actually, I’m not so sure about that. 

Two billion dollars is a lot of money, and I’m not so sure that Grand Theft Auto is still as popular in the casual market as it once was. I don’t think they’re making that money back in just retail sales. No, most of the money will almost certainly come from the next generation of GTA Online that’s certain to come as part of GTA VI. That’s probably where a lot of the delays are coming from: ensuring that the online component is appealing (and addictive) enough to generate that all-too-necessary ongoing revenue.

Considering this, I just can’t help but think that many of these companies are just plain too big to sustain themselves effectively. They need (or at least think they need) to make these bloated, overly-expensive money-printing machines because nothing else will turn enough profit to keep the company afloat, much less be profitable enough to satisfy shareholders. GTA VI is going to be a monster of a game, no doubt. I just think it’s kind of a shame that it has to be such a monster in order for it to be worth Rockstar’s time and energy.

Activision, Bethesda, Ubisoft, Blizzard and EA are all in the same boat too. They’re all too big for their own good and now believe that the only way they can sustain themselves is through hitting the veritable mainstream jackpot again and again and again. The thing is, gamers don’t have infinite money to spend. Gaming is and always has been a luxury business; luxury meaning that it’s not a necessity. People can live without buying new games and they can certainly live without Game Pass subscriptions and buying pointless skins in CoD, Fortnite or GTA Online.

As necessities like rent, food, water and electricity continue to climb in cost, more and more people are either going to cut back on video game spending or cut it out entirely, a decision which, by the way, is being made a lot easier thanks to the conscious decision by game makers and platform holders to increase prices in hopes of squeezing their remaining customers even further. Even core gamers like myself are cutting back massively, buying maybe one game at full price a year now. If the core audience is cutting back, then how much more will the casuals?

Industry executives seem to think that GTA VI will open the doorway to $80, $90 and $100 games. Me, though? I think GTA VI is going to be the last straw. Rather than the beginning, I see it as the end: the last and only game that most people will be willing to drop that kind of cash on. After GTA VI, I’m thinking that the AAA end of the industry is going to collapse into a true luxury goods kind of business, something that only wealthy customers will be able to engage with.

Maybe in the next few years we’ll see EA and Activision-Blizzard products become something akin to designer clothing/accessories from the likes of Gucci and Prada. They’ll be status symbols first and foremost, with the question of whether the game is any good being pretty much moot. And, you know, that might be a good thing. At the very least, it’d break what’s left of their influence over the industry as a whole and free it up to start growing in healthy ways again.

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What do you think of all this though? Do you think AAA can keep going as it is now?

Image from the Grand Theft Auto 6 website.